New York · river
Oak Orchard Creek near Shelby
USGS monitoring location. Launch access and paddling suitability have not been verified.
Weather comparison · not a safety rating
Favorable weather
Weather score out of 100
Weather only. This is a monitoring station, not a verified launch. Access, hazards and suitable flow are unknown.
Weather observation: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 00:15:00 GMT.
River observation: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT.
Page checked: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 00:24:41 GMT. Readings older than one hour are not used for the current score.
Wind
6 mph
gusting to 13 mph
Air temp
53°F
0% chance of rain
River flow
86.1 cfs
very high for this date
Weather outlook
Saturday · 100
Mon
90
67°
Tue
84
58°
Wed
96
60°
Thu
97
61°
Fri
77
56°
Sat
100
63°
Best
Sun
61
67°
Compares forecast wind, air temperature and rain. Does not assess river flow, swell, currents, water temperature or launch access. All times are local to this location.
Wind, next 12 hours
mph| Hour | Wind (mph) | Gusts (mph) |
|---|---|---|
| 8p | 6 | 13 |
| 9p | 6 | 13 |
| 10p | 6 | 13 |
| 11p | 6 | 12 |
| 12a | 5 | 10 |
| 1a | 4 | 7 |
| 2a | 4 | 6 |
| 3a | 4 | 5 |
| 4a | 3 | 6 |
| 5a | 5 | 9 |
| 6a | 7 | 12 |
| 7a | 6 | 14 |
Is this flow normal for October 20?
Today's 86.1 cfs is 169% above the median for this date — which counts as very high water here.
The median flow on this date is 32 cfs, across 16 years of USGS record at this gauge. Whether that is runnable depends on the stretch — this is context, not a recommendation.
Why this score
- Wind — 6 mph — light wind at the forecast location±0
- Cold — 53°F air temperature — cool weather; water temperature is not measured-11
We don't have launch notes for this one
This page is built from the USGS gauge at this location, and uses available public readings. We haven't verified where to put in, what the hazards are, or whether this stretch is legal or sensible to paddle. We'd rather say that than invent it. The links below are where to find out.
We also don't have a verified safe-flow range here, so the Paddle Score reflects weather only. Judge the flow number against local knowledge, not against our score.
Do your own homework
We show you live conditions. For local knowledge — where to put in, what the hazards are, whether it's worth the drive — here's where paddlers actually talk about this water. We don't vet these sources; check the dates and judge for yourself.
- Paddler discussion on Reddit
Trip reports and local warnings, straight from the source
- Search American Whitewater
Rapid classifications and gauge-linked run descriptions
- Satellite view and access roads
Check parking, put-ins, and what the banks actually look like
- Video from this water
The fastest way to see the character of a run before you drive
- USGS gauge 04220045
Full hydrograph, historical flows, and station metadata